Ask An Appraiser

Worried about the state of the market? Here's how to navigate it

by Dave Kinney
27 October 2023 4 min read

In addition to benefitting from a trove of data, Hagerty Insider also relies heavily on the expertise of veteran market watchers, including Dave Kinney, appraiser and publisher of Hagerty Price Guide. In this column, he will answer often-asked questions about collector car values and buying and selling. Though Dave can’t put a value on an individual car in this column (that’s what people pay him to do in his appraisal business, after all), he can field questions about the appraisal process, how to go about buying and selling classics, and the industry as a whole. Have a question of your own for a future article? Ask in the comments section.

What to do in a slow market? I’m more than a little worried about the state of the collector car market. I see that the numbers are way down for the Monterey sales in 2023. Is this a good time to sell, or should I hang on?

DK: A number of people have asked me this, as well as similar question – “Is this a good time to buy?”

On our recent “Hagerty’s No Reserve” podcasts, Larry Webster and I have been talking about Autumn 2023 as a buying season, while pointing out more than a handful of good buys that we’ve seen in the marketplace recently. In reality, good buys are everywhere right now, maybe on a car or truck you’ve been looking for.

Just for the record here, yes, the numbers were down for the auctions when totaled in Monterey from the year before, despite more cars on offer. But, to put things in context, 2022 was a record year. In fact, 2023 was the second-highest sales year in Monterey, ever. And the longest promised recession in known history? Economists tend to agree it’s not here… at least not yet.

This is where things tend to get tricky. With higher interest rates (which, in reality is more like a return to “regular” rates we have lived with for years) some segments of the collector car markets are seeing weakness. Last year at around this time, bargains were very few and far between. Today, it only takes a glance at recent auction offerings to find deals. Doing research for our last podcast, it didn’t take me long at all to find a 92,500-mile 2005 Porsche Cayenne that sold for $5,500 (Mecum Chattanooga), a 1986 Nissan Skyline GTS-X for $6,825 (Bring-A-Trailer), a 1995 Nissan Pajero Mini VR-II 4X4 (with US title) that only brought $4,700 (Cars&Bids), and my personal favorite, a 22,000-mile 2007 Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder that changed garages for $85,800 (back to Mecum Chattanooga for this one).


We have gone over some of this before, but here are a few personal tips I have picked up over the years:

  1. Think outside the box, and don’t be afraid to get out of your comfort zone. I talk to buyers and sellers all the time, and I know there are some people who refuse to buy from dealers or auction houses. Part of the problem with this is that it limits your potential choices. I’m happy to tell you that I’ve scored great deals from auctions, dealers, and private individuals alike. This might surprise you, but I prefer buying from auctions and dealers more than from private owners. The time I have wasted looking at cars that were grossly misrepresented, had serious paperwork issues, or clueless sellers is, well, laughable. With dealers and auction houses, not so much.
  2. Go and look at the car with your own eyes, if at all possible. I covered a lot of this in the last Ask an Appraiser, and should you decide to read or re-read that article, check the comment section out as well. There’s a lot of good advice in there that I didn’t cover.
  3. Don’t just shop for the car. Look at the seller, too. My friend and fellow Hagerty contributor Rob Sass and I have an inside joke. “If you are buying a Porsche that has a Porsche Club of America sticker on one side or the rear window, and an Airline Pilots Association of America sticker on the other corner, you can assume the car is a good one.” Why? Simple. Pilots know about the importance of preventative maintenance, because lives might depend on it. That PCA sticker means they are enthusiasts who at the very least read about their cars, but also probably know sources for parts, tech tips, and things to watch out for. As for dealers and auction houses (or auction platforms) if you get bad vibes, just leave. It can be that simple.
  4. Buy the best you can afford, unless you have the skills and time to do the work yourself.
  5. Deals are like trains. There’s another one coming down the tracks. Wait for the right one.

As for what to do in the current, soft-looking market, the advice is mostly the same as with anything you buy or sell, be it stocks or real estate or Beanie Babies. Don’t panic. Don’t sell something you want to keep unless circumstances force you to do so. The flip side of that coin is that you should never buy anything just because it’s currently cheaper than it used to be.

Collector cars are made to be enjoyed, not traded on a whim. So far this year I have sold one car and bought another. Next year for me it looks like it might be the same.

Everyone’s results will vary, but if you have some spare time on your hands this upcoming colder weather season, and if there is a type or kind of car you have been thinking about buying, I suggest you start shopping soon.


  • Gary Bechtold says:

    I love how people try to say there is no recession but between people losing there jobs at the drop of a hat with big corporations, big inflation and big interest rate hikes all I can say is call it what you want but the truth is we have been in it now for a bit. One can hope people wake up and fire all their elected officials from the top down.

  • Rick L says:

    It is the same as the stock market buy low, sell high. If you can’t take the ups/downs maybe just buy what you like and uh…DRIVE it and ENJOY it. What a novel idea.

  • Scratch Gravel says:

    Lots of reasons it’s cheaper than it used to be!!

  • Bach says:

    Here’s the problem with the internet: anyone who can read and type can put an opinion out there. The guy spinning conspiracy theories in his mom’s basement gets the same airtime as the phd in Economics . A recession has a clear definition (Google it). Guy feelings, your opinion on job losses brought about by nasty corporations are not relevant. We are not in a recession. The economy is changing as a result of countless factors: the pandemic and the resulting work from home trend. Inflation caused by bipartisan spending in the last administration. And much more plus the knock on effects from these two. It may be that the collector car benefits from people looking to park some cash in fun instead of an unsteady stock market. Or maybe younger people don’t view the automobile as anything other than a disposable commodity and the market shrinks considerably. If that happens it’ll be quality and rarity that will win out. For a very few.

  • Scott McPherson says:

    The bigger question beyond this current market may be the changing of the guard with the newer generation and the impact of EV’s on the mindset of the younger than us generation. Steps that states like California are pose d to make also have a physiological impact on those that could be in the market. There is little doubt the best days are likely in the rear view mirror for the nearly guaranteed ability to enjoy without much regard to losing money..

  • paul s murray says:

    All things considered I’m feeling pretty optimistic. Then again I took a bath when the Dutch iris market collapsed in 37 so. What can I tell you? I was young. Lesson learned. You forgot tip # 1 Dave. Don’t listen to the rambling speculations of people who wouldn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground.

  • paul s murray says:

    * sorry Dutch ‘tulip’

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