Data Dive

The September Hagerty Market Rating says the party ain't over

by Adam Wilcox
15 September 2022 2 min read
Image

After trending downward for two months, the Hagerty Market Rating has reversed its slump and is now at an all time high. While most metrics increased only slightly over the last month, eased inflationary forces allowed that small growth in the car market to have more substantial influence on the Market Rating as a whole.

Median sales prices at auction saw the largest increase of any metric, due primarily to high prices at the record-setting Monterey auctions in August. Most notably, a 1955 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider once campaigned by Carroll Shelby sold for $22M, and pre-LaFerrari halo cars including examples of the 288 GTO, F40, F50, and Enzo all exceeded their prior ceilings. Total sales for the three-day event featuring five auction companies neared $473 million, besting the previous record of $394M in 2015. While that year's sales surpass $490M when adjusted for inflation, the Monterey '22 auctions put an exclamation point on what has already been an unprecedented year for the classic car market.

A record number of million-dollar-plus cars (112) found new homes at Monterey, making up roughly three-quarters of the total sales. As UK Hagerty Price Guide publisher John Mayhead noted earlier this week, inflation could actually be driving high-net-worth collectors to put their money into significant cars as a hedge. But what's notable is that in the United States, at least, the middle of the collector car market has also regained some steam.

Average and median values in the Hagerty Price Guide are up again this month—and this time they are outpacing inflation. However, the Hagerty Hundred Index, a weighted average value of the 100 most insured vehicles in the Hagerty Price Guide, dropped slightly. This suggests that much of the market growth is occurring outside of the realm of "standard class" and is further broadening the definition of a collector car. Surprising sales from cult classics at Monterey drive this point home, including a $56,000 1972 Honda Z600 and a 1995 Porsche 928 GTS at $406,500, which doubled the previous record.

As values rise, so do owner expectations. Insured values across the board increased for the 23rd consecutive month. A concern in recent months has been that collectors' perception of appreciation might exceed reality. At the moment, that doesn't seem to be happening—more cars sold above insured value than below, proving that demand from buyers is even higher.

Macro-economic indicators used in the Market Rating have reversed their downward spiral and are at their highest point since the start of the year, helped primarily by a bump in the S&P 500 and Gold Price as well as a reduction in inflation. However, the U.S. Median Home Price Index dropped for the first time in two years, suggesting that the market could be cooling on hard assets.

Obviously, those macroeconomic factors remain extremely volatile. Even as we put together the September Rating, which is based largely on data from August, we can't help but note that the S&P 500 has been through a rocky week. Yet the collector car market itself seems far more steady. Considering the wild appreciation we've observed in the last two years, that stability is remarkable.

A story about
Hagerty
Valuation Tools

See how much your car is worth.

Get current values, historical values, model history and more.

Comments

  • Darwin Ottolini says:

    I guess it’s ok for me to bid $22,000,100 the next time Shelby’s Ferrari is on the block….

  • Oldfordman says:

    Two things big: Premier auctions like Monterey and Stock market continuing to slump

  • Stephen Nelson says:

    Heck – for me, the party starts when the cars I love become more affordable. If one is just into cars for the appreciation I sort of hope the partiers loose their shorts.

  • DrR says:

    Agreed, the auctions have helped put the car “driving” hobby out of the reach of many. And flippers have added to the problem.

  • Maestro1 says:

    I think we are in a period of uncertainty. High net worth people will always be in their own market
    which has nothing to do with the market as a whole. I buy cars out of car ports, garages, the desert, barns, attorneys who don’t believe in auctions, and my market with regard to prices at acquisition level are low and stable. I do quiet business. I have been around cars since I was 10
    years old, working with my Father who was also a car nut. I am now 85 years old, still at it. When
    I sell something I don’t want anymore nine chances in ten I get a reasonable profit and leave some money on the table. You’d be amazed at the referrals I get. Forget the statistics. Do your own work.

    • T. says:

      I couldn’t agree more. The collector market im into is a whole different world of people, but I do make stupid profits from the scale of vehicles I play with. Possibly a tickle down from the Monterey spenders, but, ill take it. 👍😁👍

    • Dave Tobin says:

      @maestro1 gets it… I love talking and spending time with guys like this, I use the same model. Quiet, unglamorous deals of many interesting and glamorous cars and the referrals are my life. I love to experience lots of different cars. The fun is in the driving, events, friends made, time spent.

  • b krug says:

    At 67 years of age I have had the opportunity of owning , maintaining, and restoring many higher end muscle cars. What I have ended up learning over the years is that in today’s market you are better off buying the best rust free, clean, ready to drive example of the dream car you have always wanted, and yes you can do 75% of the work yourself, which I have done in the past, but it always comes at a cost ( typically 2-4 years of your time) and the 25% that you could not do typically exceeds what you thought it would cost. In the end it ends up taking a lot longer and costing you a lot more than you thought. At 67 I do not have those extra years to play with. The 4 cars that I own today, I bought as nice examples that were ready for the road, I drive them and only have to maintain them, my most recent purchase was a 1971 Pontiac Trans Am-4 speed, 19,000 original miles, original paint and interior, unrestored, and totally rust free!.. Did I pay up for a car like this after looking for a year?, absolutely!, but if I were to restore a good example of this car to the same standards it would have cost at least another few years plus 50% more. All I can say is I have yet to lose any money on any of best examples of the cars that I have owned, buy the best examples you can, mine are not “concours”, but are great examples of the brand, when you do get tired of it, and want something different, you will get your value out of it, do your research, be patient, know what you are looking at buy the best example you can, it will pay off in the long run..

  • don cox says:

    More cars sold Above insured value—Does that mean insurance companies are short changing us?

    • roger h says:

      Good one Don! Will Hagerty leave this up – or just say to us that you’d better spend some more $ to keep your valuation up to date? Antique cars are my passion – after my wife and family, but auction results and the reporting of high sales are not helping over-all.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

More on this topic

Hagerty Insider Newsletter

Your weekly dose of auction reports, market analysis, and more.

Thank You!
Your request will be handled as soon as possible
Hagerty Insider Newsletter
Your weekly dose of auction reports, market analysis, and more.
Share