Here at Insider, we have only recently started publishing annual market predictions. We pore over a lot of data over the course of any given day, and we’re proud of our ability to spot trends (our Bull Market List cohorts have performed particularly well). That said, our 2021 predictions score was just 2.5/6. How’d we do with our five predictions for 2022? Keep reading to find out.
This time last year, we were concerned about the lingering effects of the pandemic, which would appear as continued disruptions to supply chains and further growth of online auctions. Unrelated to the pandemic, we expected the market to continue its demographic changes.
All told, here are the predictions and scores:
1. Sales at online auctions will double (again)
Not even close. We expected total sales at online auctions to exceed $2 billion through a combination of additional growth and higher values. While sales have doubled in most years since 2016, this year, online sales will likely only increase by 45 percent to $1.58 billion. Growth in the number of vehicles sold slowed by more than half (from 70 to 30 percent), and appreciation for many of those vehicles has also slowed.
2. SUVs and analog supercars will continue to appreciate, but older American and British cars will tread water
Three-quarters right. Here is where we get into demographic shifts, as Gen-X enthusiasts (1965-1981) tend to be especially interested in SUVs and supercars, while older generations often like American and British production cars from the 1950s.
SUVs increased by 9 percent from January 2022 through January 2023. Analog supercars increased by 23 percent over the same period. Conversely, 1950s American cars (excluding tri-five Chevys) increased by 6 percent, and same-era production British sports cars fell by 3 percent.
3. We'll see the return of eight-figure classics
Correct! We saw the first nine-figure sale with the $142 million 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupe. All told, five cars sold for more than eight-figures, which is up from just two in 2021.
4. A Japanese car will sell for more than $2 million
Correct! We assumed it might be a Toyota 2000GT convertible from one of the 007 movies or perhaps a Mazda or Toyota with Le Mans history, but it was another combination of those features. Instead, a 1967 Toyota 2000GT with Shelby racing history sold for $2.535 million at the Gooding & Company’s Amelia auction in March.
On the private market, some cars have sold for close to $2 million, so we’ll likely see more sales like this in 2023.
5. Project cars will stay shelved
Correct! The logic behind this prediction was that parts were harder to get, and people wanted to drive sooner rather than later. While quantifying this isn’t straightforward, if we saw more appreciation for condition 4 vehicles than other, better-condition vehicles, the demand for projects would be greater. If the condition 4 value appreciation lagged the better-condition vehicle values, those projects would have stayed shelved. What happened? The average condition 4 value increased less than 3.9 percent, which lagged all other condition values – with increases of 6.1, 5.6, and 4.9 percent for conditions 1-3, respectively.
At 3.75 out of 5, or 75 percent, we outperformed our lackluster 42 percent showing from 2021. We'll take it, especially considering what a topsy-turvy year it was. Stay tuned for our 2023 predictions, and don't forget to share your own in the comments.
I’m wondering if your online sales total is capable of capturing bids placed on line, but executed at a live auction. For example, at the recent RM Sotheby’s auction in Munich, online bids poured in so quickly that the auctioneer was at times reduced to simply reading bids from a screen, ignoring the room. I suspect if those sales were categorized as online sales, the total for the year would have more than doubled.
We define an auction with an auctioneer and a gavel as live – even if the bids are through an online app or via telephone.
In looking at facebook ads, I see asking prices for just about any Chevy sky-rocketing. Even mostly parts cars have asking prices in the thousands. Runners in rough condition in 5 figures. At the same time, classics like Pontiac GTOs and Olds Cutlasses seem stagnent, (even though they are very similar to Chevies). Does your data show that? Why do you think that is?
Asking prices on whatever platform are often just that – asking prices.
Thanks to Hagerty, insuring, progressing into online, and Amelia, Broad arrow auctions. You guys should have the most accurate predictions and results as we go into 2023! KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK!!
Thank you! Our 2023 predictions will be better.
Most of these predictions were not really going out on a ledge.
Making predictions on what will be the best cars from the 80’s to own that we’re not mega cars.
Predicting the future of the common collector car is much more difficult predicting a McLaren F1 or F40.
What will be the 57 Chevy of the 80’s? Or will there be one?
G bodys are the Tri Five of the 80’s Monte SS, Buick GN & Olds 442 & Hurst olds I cant keep them in stock
I have predicted how long ICE vehicles will be on the road and when the McLaren F1 will be more valuable than the Ferrari 250 GTO (check back in nine years).
I just had a private sale of a vintage Porsche, restored in my shop. It brought 2/3 of what I expected. ……Jim.
wow what do you think was the reason?
“project cars will be shelved “
Yep! My 1969 Corvette project got put back into the storage trailer and funds were used to purchase 2009 18,353 Km. Porsche Cayman with PDK.
I believe one reason why “Project Car” projects are being shelved is because it has become, and rightfully so, so expensive to restore, especially repaint, that it has become prohibitive for many people to follow through to completion.
Stalled projects seem to abound and many are good deals if a buyer is knowledgable, and careful. Early New Year deals will be out their to cover Christmas expenses of the less fortunate. Happy Hunting!
Re: 5. Project cars will stay shelved
Agreed, but maybe not for the reasons you mentioned. I have two project cars that went too long not because of money or parts shortages, but because two shops screwed me over and sent me back and then the pandemic happened. So ultimately I’ve had to reckon with redoing some repairs which means twice the cost to do the same work. So at some point you just take a breather, and with the inflationary pressures this year, that meant not listing them this year but more likely year after next. I plan to finish my Restorations early 2023 for the most part, and then based on the delays I’ve had and the money I’ve had to spend, I definitely plan to drive them a little bit to enjoy them instead of trying to flip them. But I agree with the previous statement about paint and body work. Paint work is out of control. It’s frustrating when if you known that it was going to go that direction you would have painted the car 4 years ago instead of being caught having to do it now. Lesson learned wiser for next time
It’s been an interesting year but asking too much for cars is keeping some people away who have the money. For those who aren’t all emotion some have said “enough” and are sitting out. Plenty of people are still buying for the moment.