The Hagerty Market Rating is a monthly assessment of the trajectory of the collector car market. To learn more about how the Market Rating value is reached, click here.
The slight positive bump in the Hagerty Market Rating last month was short lived, as a 0.7 point decrease this month pushes the rating down to its lowest point since the start of 2022. Despite the recent losing streak, the current Market Rating value of 72.36 is still in the “rapid expansion” range and higher than any point before 2022.
Prices have started to stabilize after the pandemic-induced boom, with auction median sales prices dropping back to August 2020's value when adjusted for inflation. In similar fashion, the average and median values within the Hagerty Price Guide component of the Market Rating have returned to November 2019 levels.
This market reversal has been reflected on the private side of the market. Average sales prices in private transactions continue to decline and are now at their lowest point since fall of 2021, when adjusted for inflation. Owners who have held on to their cars have noticed a slowdown in the market as well. Following two years of consecutive growth, the ratio of insured value increases to decreases has fallen for the sixth straight month. That's not to say that values are dropping, rather that insured value growth is slowing down. For every 13 cars under $200,000 in value that see an insured value increase, one drops in insured value. For high-end cars, this ratio is over four to one.
Broader economic uncertainty could be applying the brakes to the classic car market. Although three out of the four macro-economic indicators used in the Market Rating increased this month, their combined score dropped to its lowest point in more than two years due to continually high inflation.
Despite the market slowdown, our industry experts remain cautiously optimistic, describing the current conditions as stable. Restoration shops are still at full capacity and our network of dealers are still reporting strong sales.
For enthusiasts, this market correction can be seen a good thing. When prices skyrocket, as they did during the last few years, enthusiasts who like to use the classic cars they buy may feel priced out of the market as speculators try to strike it rich. Now that the driving season is upon us, car lovers can breathe a bit easier knowing that they can buy and enjoy cars without paying the pandemic era's unreasonable prices.
I agree the market is cooling, but watching the last two MECUM auctions – MOPARS appear to be immune.
Square bodies, OBS, and 67-72 Trucks are hotting. Street rods are iffy except the high-end builds are doing pretty good. Resto mods will never bring the upper 6 figs cost to build but still bring decent money. The money is in building cars as a business even with employee shortages and supply issues. Most of the shops I know are innovative and are figuring it out by not waiting on the government to fix it.
All my outside trade partners are still underwater. One reason is that young people are just not wanting to get their hands dirty. Restoration costs continue to rise rapidly. It ius near impossible to brake even in my markets. …….Jim.
I guess The Federal Reserve Chair’s continual interest rate hikes are finally biting.
I’m not looking to buy, bad time right now to look at anything.