Hagerty's collector car indexes point to a coasting market

The Hagerty Price Guide Indexes are seven stock market-style indexes that average the values of notable segment movers, or “component” cars. They help provide a broad overview of how different segments of the collector car market are performing.

Halfway through 2023, nearly all indications point to the collector car market continuing to slow down. Hagerty’s seven collector car indexes have begun to reflect that as well: only one posted a gain, and three tracked small reductions. The remainder held steady.

This overall leveling off is consistent with movement in the latest Hagerty Market Rating, which shed some speed from June to July. Collectively, while enthusiasm in the collector car market is ebbing, prices are settling into a calmer place rather than undergoing an abrupt correction.

Blue Chip

The middle of the year is usually a quiet time for the very top of the market, due largely to the lull in auction activity between those that take place at Amelia Island in the spring and Monterey in August. At least for public sales, many of the prime movers in the Blue Chip market don't surface until Pebble Beach, resulting in less potential for change in this index during the early months of summer.

That's not to say nothing happened at all—in fact, a few of the vehicles that go into our Blue Chip Index showed some movement. Prominent cars that posted losses include the 1965 Shelby GT350 (down eight percent), 1953 Chevrolet Corvette (down five percent) Lamborghini Miura SV (also down five percent) and the Aston Martin DB5 (-2%). This was all tempered by a four percent increase to the 1967 Corvette 427/435 and a two percent gain by the Ferrari 275 GTB/4. The net result was a small step back for the Blue Chip Index, but not enough to even register a percent change.

British

After a short, level period at the beginning of the year, Hagerty's British Index took another one percent step back. This segment remains one of the more economically diverse indexes within the market, with price points from the downright cheap to the exclusive.

The more affordable cars we track for this index put up some slight gains. Triumph's TR6 and TR3A gained two and three percent respectively, while the MGA pitched in with a three percent increase. Losses posted by the more valuable cars in this index wiped out any gains by the entry-level cars, however: the Austin-Healey 3000 Mk III and Jaguar XK120 lost seven and eight percent, respectively. These reductions were enough to take a point off this index's value overall.

Ferrari

Here it is, the only index on the list to increase over the past three months. Hagerty's Ferrari Index gained another three percent over the past three months, which was the largest increase since October of last year. The 2022 bump was driven by healthy results of the Ferrari-heavy Pebble Beach auctions. This time around, gains were smaller, with cars like the 246 Dino and 250 GT SWB each climbing one percent. However, the big gainer was the 250 LM, courtesy of a fresh high-profile sale. While it may seem disappointing for a car to fail to sell at auction and then be quickly relisted and sold for an amount much lower than the earlier high bid, the end result of a $17.5 million price tag (before European VAT) for a car with no race history actually shows how high the market is for the many 250 LMs with more significant provenance. Consider this affirmation of collecting's golden rule: people are still willing to pay exceptional money for exceptional cars.

American Muscle

Last quarter, we discussed how the Muscle Car Index hit an all-time high. It turns out that record is going to stand for a little while longer. The two percent drop this time around marks the first time since September of 2020 that the index has turned downward. 2021 was a second coming of sorts for the Muscle Car market, with huge activity and top-tier cars putting up all-time high numbers.

The recent reversal of fortune can be attributed to a wave of decreasing value: nearly half of the cars we track for the index showed a reduction in value last quarter. The leaders were the 1965 Shelby GT350 and 1970 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 W-30, which lost eight percent and six percent respectively. Other noteworthy movers and shakers in this market saw a step back, with LS6 Chevelles losing five percent and the 1969 Boss 429 Mustang losing four percent. It's not a rout of the market, but rather a slow, broad softening from a very high point. The one bright spot was 1964 Chevy Impala SS 409 convertibles, which gained ten percent and tempered the overall index as a result. These results may suggest further gradual softening in the future.

German

Continuing with the trend of little appreciable movement, we come to the German Index. Heavily weighted with classic Porsches, that part of the market has been rock steady and has posted no change yet again. The single contributing car within the index that lost value was the the Mercedes-Benz 190SL, which slipped five percent. This was offset by a 14 percent increase to the Mercedes-Benz 600 and a six percent uptick for the BMW 3.0 CSL.

Overall, the German market has held steady after rapid growth the past couple years, suggesting that despite the expansion, the market remains very strong for these cars, from the least expensive car in the index (the BMW 2002), all the way up to the Mercedes-Benz 300SL.

1950s American

The one percent reduction to the 1950s American Index is the first bit of cooling we've seen to 50s American cars since January of 2021. Subsequent publications of the Hagerty Price Guide have shown healthy growth in this segment despite years of worry that interest in these cars was fading.

This period's loss can be attributed to softness in some of the headlining component cars, like the 1958 Cadillac Eldorado Brougham and 1959 Eldorado Biarritz, which saw a 12 and two percent reduction, respectively. The other notable downturn in value was for the 1954 Buick Skylark, with a ten percent slip since the previous quarter. These were softened somewhat by the ten percent gain to the Chrysler 300C and eight percent bump to the Packard Caribbean. The takeaway? Poster cars from this era are slowing down, while more accessible models from this era are holding their ground. As the overall market continues to cool, we will be watching to see if the softness remains at the top of the market for 1950s cars, or if it starts to trickle down to more affordable models.

Affordable Classics

Hagerty's Affordable Classics Index showed no appreciable change over the last quarter. This comes after years of steady growth that took some formerly truly cheap cars in the market well out of "affordable" range for many buyers. This recent pause is consistent with the broader slowing in the market we've noted for much of the past year.

Previous looks at this index showed much more activity under the surface despite the lack of overall change in the index's performance. This time around, however, there was truly very little happening. Of the cars we track for the index, the Triumph TR6, Volkswagen Beetle and Karmann Ghia all gained a mere two percent, but an eight percent reduction to Studebaker Larks kept things in check. Of the nine other cars we track for the index, nothing of note happened.